Plan Your Business With Statistical Forecasting

This course is for anyone involved in business planning

"What will happen next?" is a question that all businesses want to know the answer to. Clearly, if businesses knew what the future entailed, it would make it so much easier to plan their sales, purchases, production, stocks, logistics, staffing, cashflow, research, etc. The reality is that business planning has to take place amidst great uncertainty as to the future. The need for sound forecasts is obvious yet many businesses fail to apply the fundamental concepts of statistical forecasting. As a result, they will face higher costs and uncertainties when the reality diverges from their plans than those businesses that use statistical forecasting to plan their businesses.

This course uses a mixture of stimulating discussions and real-life case studies to introduce the following concepts. Each will be carefully explained, its relevance to forecasting highlighted and how the relevant calculations can be done in Excel.

• Uncertainty - what is it and how much can you live with?

• Fundamental or Technical? - which is the best forecasting approach?

• Sober or Drunk? - which is the best state to be in when forecasting?

• Errors in Forecasts - how they occur and how to quantify them

• The right & wrong ways to plan your business