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Office:
Mobile:
+44 (0)1225 489033
+44 (0)773 4069997
Fax:
+44 (0)870 6221969

Marriott Statistical Consulting Ltd
Ground Floor
21 Marlborough Buildings
Bath BA1 2LY
United Kingdom

Turn Trends into Actions & Forecasts

The next course will be run on Monday 22nd & Tuesday 23rd March 2010 in Bath. For other dates in 2010, please look at our calendar. Places are still available with prices starting from £345+VAT for one day and £595+VAT for both days. You can reserve your place by completing & returning this booking form.

icon_pdf booking form for course  

This course is for managers, planners & analysts in all industries

About the course

"How are we doing?" must be one of the most common questions asked in any organisation. There is always a desire to assess performance to see if performance is on target or whether there is a problem that has to be solved. Whether it be customer complaints, service user opinion, staff turnover, overhead costs, policy compliance, supplier performance, waiting times and so on, no organisation can take the risk of not planning and monitoring its own performance.

Without firm foundations, it can be difficult to build anything. This day will provide you with the foundations and the 6 key concepts that underline all statistical thinking and analysis. Using a mixture of stimulating discussions and exercises, each concept will be carefully explained, its relevance to your business problems highlighted and you will be shown how the calculations can be performed in Excel.

  • Expectation - Mean, median & mode; which should you use.
  • Variance - What is it? The importance of within & between variance.
  • Probability - What is difference absolute & conditional probability?
  • Risk - What is producer & consumer risk?
  • Distribution - The importance of the normal and binomial distributions.
  • Correlation - What does it mean and why it is NOT cause & effect
  • By the end of day 1 you will be capable of using these concepts to summarise data appropriately using tables and charts. At this point, you will either be able to use your data summaries to make decisions or to identify trends to be explored in more detail using the statistical methods covered in day 2.

    This day introduces performance monitoring which involves the comparison of the most recent data with historical data so as to identify trends and any changes in trends. Performance data can then be turned into genuine insight that an organisation can act upon with much greater assurance.

  • What is a trend?
  • Summarising trends & seasonality with charts & tables.
  • Using smoothing methods to measure the underlying trend.
  • How to prove that a trend exists by using statistical tests.
  • Using control charts to identify a change in the underlying trend.
  • How to extrapolate trends into a forecast.
  • “The activities relating to each topic were very good and helped keep an interest. The teaching methods were brilliant", James Harrison, Research Officer Intern, Worcestershire County Council

    “Very beneficial if you are in an analyst role with no statistical background", Emma Whotefield, Performance Analyst

    "Recommended to encourage statistical thinking and to establish a strong grasp of basic techniques”, Emma Clark, Community Safety Analyst, Worcestershire County Council

    "Very interesting & useful to my job.", Rhiannon Platt, Performance Analyst, Devon&Somerset Fire & Rescue